Forecast of the selected financial and operating results for the year 2022

The Management Board of Grupa Kęty S.A. (hereinafter referred to as the Issuer) discloses in public a forecast of the selected financial and operating results of the Issuer’s Capital Group for the year 2022.

Consolidated data (PLN million) F2021(1) 2022 Change (%)

2022 / 2021(1)

Sales revenue, of which: 4,556 5,415 +19%
EPS 1,819 2,353 +29%
ASS 1,971 2,351 +19%
FPS 1,167 1,189 +2%
EBITDA 886 823 -7%
Profit on operating activities 734 653 -11%
Net profit 582 549 -6%


F2021 – data compliant with the forecast of 22 December 2021. The final data for 2021 will be presented in the consolidated annual financial statements for 2021.

The assumptions for preparing the 2022 estimates comprise a stable level of prices of the main raw materials used by Grupa KĘTY and absence of hindrances in their availability.

Thus, they do not comprise the existence of events which enabled the KĘTY Capital Group to generate record operating results in 2021. The market challenges or commotion, which have been aptly used by the Group, covered, among other things, a limited supply of raw materials for plastics production (the ‘force majeure’ events announced by the manufacturers), delays in plastic film imports to Europe owing to the Suez Canal closure, over 35% growth of the cost of purchase of aluminium billets during 2021, which had a positive impact on the EPS’ results due to the book valuation of inventories, or the compensation on account of electric energy prices increase in the preceding years received by the EPS in Q.4, 2021. The total positive impact of the factors in 2021 is estimated at PLN 143 million of EBITDA (of which PLN 90 million refers to the FPS, and PLN 53 million refers to the EPS).

Despite the fact, the Management Board assumes that maintenance of high growth rate on the markets of Grupa KĘTY operation shall translate into high level of orders for the offered products and further increase of sales volumes, with maintained high operating effectiveness.

As a result, the 2022 results forecast comprises an offset of most of the aforementioned effects of 2021 and generation of EBITDA at the level of PLN 823 million, which is a result exceeding the assumptions for 2022 made in the Strategy 2021–2025.

Main macroeconomic assumptions in the 2022 forecast:

  • GDP growth in Poland: 4.8%
  • inflation: 5.8%
  • average aluminium price: USD 2,750 per ton (+11% y/y)
  • billet premium: USD 1,450 per ton (+137% y/y)
  • average USD/PLN exchange rate: 3.8 (-5% y/y)
  • average EUR/PLN exchange rate: 4.5 (-3% y/y)

Sales revenue will grow by 19% as an effect of volume growth and the assumed higher costs of raw materials.

Operating costs will grow by 20% compared to F2021 and reach PLN 4,776 million, of which:

  • depreciation: PLN 170 million (+11%)
  • costs of materials: PLN 3,411 million (+23%)
  • costs of energy: PLN 174 million (+68%)
  • costs of employee benefits: PLN 603 million (+8%)
  • costs of third party services: PLN 371 million (+10%)

It has been assumed that Segments will reach the following EBITDA levels:

  • EPS [Extruded Products Segment] – PLN 255 million (-13% y/y) / (+6%) upon adjustment of F2021 for the above described effects;
  • ASS [Aluminium Systems Segment] – PLN 357 million (+6% y/y);
  • FPS [Flexible Products Segment] – PLN 225 million (-22% y/y) / (+13%) upon adjustment of F2021 for the above described effects.

As a result, the consolidated 2022 EBITDA of Grupa KETY is estimated at PLN 823 million (‑7% y/y) / (+11%) upon adjustment of F2021 for the above described effects.

The negative balance on operating activities in 2022 will amount to about PLN 50 million, and will mainly refer to the costs of loans servicing.

Tax charges in the 2022 projection will be lower than those resulting from the current activities and the binding tax rates by about PLN 60 million due to the recognition of deferred income tax asset in relation to the projects of the EPS and the ASS in special economic zones.

The 2022 forecast covers for the payment of dividend amounting to 85% of the consolidated net profit for the year 2021, which complies with the dividend policy binding at the company. The recommendation of the Company Management Board will be presented in 2022 based on the assessment of the current and expected standing of Grupa KĘTY, then submitted for opinion to the Supervisory Boar, while the final decision will be made by the AGM of Grupa KĘTY S.A.

The estimated 2022 capital expenditure will amount to PLN 497 million, including roughly PLN 100 million on projects commenced in 2021, or those postponed from 2021 to 2022.

The forecast net debt level at the end of 2022 will be PLN 1,331 million, and the net debt/EBITDA ratio will reach 1.7.

Also non-financial objectives have been set for 2022, including:

  1. reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 14% compared to the base year 2016;
  2. increase to 71% in the share of aluminium scraps in the products extruded from low‑emission LOW CARBON KETY billets;
  3. increase by 2.4% in the share of the manufactured packaging films and laminates fit for recycling compared to the base year 2020;
  4. increase by 15% in the number of Aluprof-systems-constructed buildings with environmentally-friendly certificates compared to the base year 2020;
  5. performance of 30 social projects within the ‘Together with the Group’ programme;
  6. improvement of occupational health and safety by brinding the Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) below 1.17;
  7. reduction of the staff turnover rate by 5% compared to 2021.

It has been assumed that business conditions will not change significantly, specifically as regards legal, tax and administrative regulations.

The 2022 forecast does not assume the occurrence of extraordinary, one-off nature events, which may not be foreseen on the forecast publication date.

The Issuer is going to assess the capability of accomplishing the 2022 forecast and make any appropriate adjustments on a quarterly basis and any time a major event regarding the Capital Group occurs.

The 2021 financial data presented in this current report are only estimations and may change by the time of publication of the consolidated and separate annual reports for 2021.

The ‘EBITDA’ parameter applied in the report represents the total profit on operating activities (an item of the profit and loss account for the respective reporting period) and depreciation (an item of the profit and loss account for the respective reporting period). The ‘EBITDA’ parameter is a measure presenting the capability of the Company to generate cash on basic activities. The ‘EBITDA’ ratio calculated in accordance with the above mentioned guidelines would amount to PLN 672.4 million in the consolidated financial statements for 2020.

The ‘net debt’ parameter applied in the report represents the total of long-term loan payables and long-term lease liabilities (items of the balance-sheet equity/liabilities), plus short-term loan payables and short-term lease liabilities (items of the balance-sheet equity/liabilities), less the value of cash and cash equivalents (an item of the balance-sheet assets). The ‘net debt’ ratio presents the value of bank loans and other interest-bearing liabilities, in consideration of the cash available, which may be allocated to the debt repayment. In the consolidated financial statements for 2020, the ‘net debt’ ratio calculated in accordance with the above mentioned guidelines would amount to PLN 586 million as at 31 December 2020.

The presentation of the aforesaid parameters in the report by the Company results from their general application in financial analysis and valuation of the Issuer’s Capital Group by the Company stakeholders.